A few hours after the announcement of the referendum result the situation in financial markets is confused. Zurich – chief strategist Guy Miller advises in Cash video interview investors to be cautious.
News
Grapes of Wrath
“Well, Okie use’ta mean you was from Oklahoma. Now it means you’re a dirty son-of-a-bitch. Okie means you’re scum”
– John Steinbeck, “Grapes of Wrath”
After telling migrants from fellow EU countries Spain, Poland, Italy, etc. “you’re not welcome here”, BREXIT campaigners want the world’s manufacturing and financial services companies to believe a favored commercial relationship will be the outcome of the EU negotiations. As Americans, it is hard to fathom why a state would vote to change its laws to bar children from the other 49 from working there. Yet that appears to be what England has chosen to do. New Prime Minister May is known for hard views over free movement of labor. Continue reading
Chamberl … er … Cameron’s moment
While the ink is still wet, it can be said that the vote to leave the EU is expected to prompt a number of significant changes:
- Within the UK, ministers will seek to narrow the meaning and implementation of the ‘Leave’ mandate in final execution. Under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, exit takes place two years from EU receipt of formal notification. Leaders of “Leave” movement have cited waiting two years before giving formal notice. However this will be considerably more difficult as
- In voting to secede from the EU, UK’s political capital with EU members has been severely damaged. Efforts by UK ministers to preserve UK’s economic interests in Europe — and negotiate the terms — will be a difficult process and subject to EU members agreement.
- China’s expanded role as a leader in global financial marketplace.
- Resurgence in demand for political risk insurance (government default). GDP forecasts are being cut globally. More immediate, Reuters reports that the cost for insuring Irish government debt has surged to highest level in 2 ½ years.
RNC Conservatives swipe at EXIM again
RNC’s conservatives lost the EXIM re-authorization vote and took a different EXIM program hostage. After losing the EXIM reauthorization fight to outgoing House Speaker Boehner and the RNC majority, RNC’s right wing adopted new tactics in Senate and have blocked filling any of the 3 vacancies on EXIMs five member board of directors. The vacancies cap EXIM at $10MM transaction levels and limit eligible transactions to those with terms under one year, well below EXIMs normal authorization levels. At the annual April conference EXIM reported approximately $10B in U.S. exports and related jobs are impacted. The RNC’s cap on EXIM comes despite growing worldwide evidence that OECD and emerging market governments outside U.S. are increasing the amount of governments’ export credit agency (ECA) support for their manufacturers and exporters.
In classic Barney Fife fashion for which RNC conservatives are now known, limiting EXIM to the ‘lower’ approval levels materially defeats their stated goal to prevent EXIM from competing with market alternatives. There is significant commercial market capabilities in under $10MM short term transaction — the market where conservatives have locked in EXIM. Meanwhile EXIM is blocked from providing U.S. companies the medium term/+$10MM credit support, the segment where commercial market capabilities are limited to non existent. Well policed, Deputy Fife.
Recent market pricing
- $700MM insured commodity sales to high yield customers. Pricing @ 19BPs
- $100MM insured accounts receivable balances. B3 rated corporate credit. Pricing@ 3.80% per annum
AR Puts available for the Following Retailers
Moody’s reports a record $947B in high-yield (“junk”) debt is scheduled for maturity in next 5 years, and many of those companies will struggle to find refinancing. In light of recent high profile retailer bankruptcy filings, Credit Eureka’s partners in the accounts receivable (AR) put markets have recently put out fresh ‘run’ of corporate names where credit protection is available for purchase:
- AutoZone
- Barnes & Noble
- Best Buy
- Bon Ton Stores
- Burlington Coat
- C&S Wholesale
- Dillards Federated/Macys
- HD Supply
- Home Depot
- Hudson’s Bay
- JC Penney
- Kohl’s
- L Brands
- Lowe’s
- Macy’s
- Michaels Stores
- Neiman Marcus
- New Albertsons
- Nordstom
- Office Depot
- Pep Boys
- Rite Aid
- rue21
- aks
- Sears/Kmart
- Sears Canada
- Staples
- SuperValu
- Target
- Toys R Us
- Walmart
This list is not comprehensive.
Contact us with interest on these or other names, or to simply learn more about AR put options and how they differ from business credit insurance.