While the ink is still wet, it can be said that the vote to leave the EU is expected to prompt a number of significant changes:
- Within the UK, ministers will seek to narrow the meaning and implementation of the ‘Leave’ mandate in final execution. Under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, exit takes place two years from EU receipt of formal notification. Leaders of “Leave” movement have cited waiting two years before giving formal notice. However this will be considerably more difficult as
- In voting to secede from the EU, UK’s political capital with EU members has been severely damaged. Efforts by UK ministers to preserve UK’s economic interests in Europe — and negotiate the terms — will be a difficult process and subject to EU members agreement.
- China’s expanded role as a leader in global financial marketplace.
- Resurgence in demand for political risk insurance (government default). GDP forecasts are being cut globally. More immediate, Reuters reports that the cost for insuring Irish government debt has surged to highest level in 2 ½ years.
More long term will be:
- Further loss of US influence on the European continent as its biggest policy advocate is leaving the EU, resulting in
- An emboldened Russia and other authoritarian regimes
- The vote may presage a breakup of Britain, as population majorities in both Scotland and Northern Ireland — both areas with strong nationalist movements — voted to stay in EU. Nationalists can now add that independence from Britain provides opportunity for EU membership and related economic benefits.
- Rise in secessionist pressures in other parts of world
Current List of EU Countries:
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.
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